Get in touch
1   /   2
2   /   2
1   /   2
2   /   2
17 June 2020

Stace Outlook Index, June 2020

The Stace Outlook Index brings you the latest updates on the UK economy, the industry and Tender Price Index (TPI) forecasts.

An industry impacted by COVID-19

Covid-19 continues to raise many challenges to the operation of the country with a profound effect on the property and construction industry in addition to the UK and global economy.

Construction output fell by 40.1% in April (ONS) and with continued uncertainty and ongoing restrictions, total UK Construction Output is predicted to fall by 25% in 2020 (Construction Products Association). However, Build UK’s contractor members are now reporting that 97% of their sites are operating (The Construction Index).

Uncertainty in the market is reflected in tender price forecasts. Some industry commentators forecast a wide range between -3% to 1% for 2020 with most predicting that prices will flatline. Increased competition, reduction in salaries, and a tight squeeze on profit margins could be offset by potentially lower productivity as a result of social distancing measures, extended time on site, and constraints on the availability of labour and materials.

In the absence of comprehensive data, we are using BCIS TPI percentages as an interim measure, albeit assessing each project individually. BCIS TPI projections fluctuate regularly and, in our opinion, their current assessment is on the high side.

These are extraordinary and unsettling times, however, the Government’s various rescue initiatives for businesses provides comfort and the Bank of England predicts UK GDP could rebound relatively quickly in 2020 H2 as restrictions on movement and trade are lifted (Monetary Policy Report May 2020).


View the Stace Outlook Index

Reference List

ONS Available from:
Construction News Available from:
Building Available from:
The Construction Index Available from:
Construction Products Association Available from:
Monetary Policy Report May 2020 Available from:
The information contained in our biannual Stace Outlook Index is for general purposes only. The content provided by Stace LLP always endeavours to be up to date and accurate. Stace LLP accepts no responsibility for any loss arising from any action taken or not taken by anyone using this material. The Tender Price Forecast may be required to change when discussing project specific requirements. The data is obtained from sources including the ONS, Monetary Policy Committee Reports and RICS.


Keep up to date
Sign up for all our latest news and updates.